Ubiquitous
2020-11-14 01:05:06 UTC
Theres big news breaking here in Pennsylvania, and most of the
national media seems to be unaware. Its the matter of Pennsylvanias
crucial (but heretofore largely ignored) provisional ballots, which
could be decisive in pushing Donald Trump back into the lead in the
state, or at least triggering a statewide recount.
Before considering those details, I want to respond to the many
inquiries Ive received from readers wondering how its possible that
Joe Biden could have pulled into the lead in Pennsylvania. Its an
excellent question, and theyre right to be dubious of what has
transpired.
Yes, Joe Biden has somehow surpassed Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, but
dont blame voters in Pittsburgh, nor maybe even voters in
Philadelphia. Frankly, its hard to figure whom to blame. Its somewhat
baffling. Of those mail-in ballots that started to be counted on
Wednesday, and that allowed Joe Biden an astonishing comeback after
being down to Donald Trump by a massive (and seemingly insurmountable)
margin of roughly a half million votes, Biden would have needed
probably at least 80 percent. That was my own estimate, which I wrote
about here on Thursday. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien estimated
on Wednesday afternoon that Biden would have to get 78 percent of
outstanding votes to win Pennsylvania. He noted (as I did) that while
there were outstanding votes in Biden counties like Philadelphia and
Montgomery, there were also many votes left in York, Butler, and
various Trump counties. Stepien thus confidently asserted, We are
declaring a victory in Pennsylvania. So did Donald Trump, and
understandably so.
Personally, I do not see how Joe Biden could have gotten that 80
percent, even as mail-in ballots have in fact been significantly
favorable to Biden throughout the country. Consider this striking
number: Biden was actually barely getting 80 percent in Philadelphia
County. Indeed, Trump still has almost 20 percent of the Philadelphia
County votes (thats surprisingly good, I thought hed be lucky to get
10 percent). He also has nearly 40 percent of Allegheny County
(Pittsburghs county) votes. Many of the other mail-in counties
remaining were Republican-Trump counties, including my own (Mercer
County, where Trump has 62 percent of the vote) and counties like
Beaver (huge fracking area, 58 percent for Trump) and even large GOP
counties like York (likewise 62 percent for Trump). (Click here for the
county breakdown.)
And yet, as weve watched the overall Pennsylvania vote flip to Biden
over the last 72 hours, its as if Donald Trump hasnt gotten even a
few hundred thousand new votes, whereas Bidens total soars by the
millions. I think Joe Biden would have been lucky to get 60 to 70
percent of all the remaining mail-in ballots. I find it almost
inconceivable that he got 80 percent.
Donald Trump is right to be suspicious, and to at least demand double-
checking, given not just Philadelphias ugly history of political
corruption, and his suspicion of the general susceptibility for mail-
in-ballot fraud, but given the implausibility of what has happened in
Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign was absolutely justified in believing
it had Pennsylvania in the bag (see my column on that). What has
somehow transpired since late Tuesday night does not seem plausible.
Consider, too: Donald Trump has 400,000 more votes in Pennsylvania in
2020 than he received in 2016, and yet he may still lose the state. The
enthusiasm for Trump here is off the charts, in contrast to no
enthusiasm for Biden. If Joe Biden has truly received that many votes
in Pennsylvania, then it must be via pure, unbridled, ferocious anti-
Trump hatred.
But alas, this isnt over, which brings me to the crucial matter of the
provisional votes. I learned last evening that there are roughly
100,000 provisional ballots still out and uncounted in Pennsylvania.
The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania defines a provisional ballot this way:
Sometimes county elections officials need more time to
determine a voters eligibility to vote. Election officials
may ask that voter to vote a provisional ballot. A provisional
ballot records your vote while the county board of elections
determines whether it can be counted.
A provisional ballot might include, for instance, a person registered
to vote at one precinct but who voted at a different precinct and thus
had had to fill out a provisional ballot. Thats just one of a variety
of examples. (Click the website for more criteria and details.)
Pennsylvania election officials have just now (this Saturday morning)
started to count these ballots. The process works like this: There are
groups/boards of three individuals who examine each ballot. Each
candidate on the ballot is allowed a representative at this hearing.
The board looks at each ballot, reads the ballot number aloud, and
examines the precinct and the reason that the person voted provisional.
At that point, a candidates representative can object whether the
ballot should or should not be counted. That ballot is set aside and is
evaluated further.
One source involved in these evaluations tells me that most of the
ballots will likely be accepted.
Most notably, these ballots should skew to Donald Trump. As I write,
Trump is winning the provisional ballots 1,394 to 439, or by a margin
of over three to one. If that margin continues, Trump could overtake
Bidens current lead in Pennsylvania. And if those ballots arent quite
enough to put Trump back in front, they could draw him close enough to
trigger an automatic recount for the entire state (a mere margin of 0.5
percent triggers an automatic recount). (The major media is not
reporting on this, with exceptions such as the AP and MSNBC).
In other words, this aint over. And its why Donald Trump is
absolutely right to not concede anything and to double-check
everything. All of the votes in Pennsylvania have not been counted.
Anyone who demands that Donald Trump suddenly concede the state of
Pennsylvania now that Joe Biden has finally barely passed him is
ignorant of the fact that there remains this crucial cache of
provisional ballots. Trump supporters endured the process of watching
the mail-in ballots being counted (i.e., Bidens strength); now Biden
supporters need to wait out the process of provisional ballots being
counted (i.e., Trumps strength).
Finally, heres an even bigger question that I cant answer beyond the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Which other crucial battleground states
have provisional ballots yet to be counted? Do they exist in Arizona,
Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, or in Michigan and Wisconsin? Is this
being considered? Is the Trump campaign aware of it?
These provisional ballots state by state will favor Trump because they
are mainly Election Day ballots, and Trump won most of these states
votes on Election Day.
In a presidential race this razor-thin, these provisional ballots could
be a game-changer not just in Pennsylvania.
The media has no authority to decide who wins the presidential
election. Thats a decision reserved to and to be certified by each
states board of elections based strictly on a final vote tally. And
that has not yet been determined.
national media seems to be unaware. Its the matter of Pennsylvanias
crucial (but heretofore largely ignored) provisional ballots, which
could be decisive in pushing Donald Trump back into the lead in the
state, or at least triggering a statewide recount.
Before considering those details, I want to respond to the many
inquiries Ive received from readers wondering how its possible that
Joe Biden could have pulled into the lead in Pennsylvania. Its an
excellent question, and theyre right to be dubious of what has
transpired.
Yes, Joe Biden has somehow surpassed Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, but
dont blame voters in Pittsburgh, nor maybe even voters in
Philadelphia. Frankly, its hard to figure whom to blame. Its somewhat
baffling. Of those mail-in ballots that started to be counted on
Wednesday, and that allowed Joe Biden an astonishing comeback after
being down to Donald Trump by a massive (and seemingly insurmountable)
margin of roughly a half million votes, Biden would have needed
probably at least 80 percent. That was my own estimate, which I wrote
about here on Thursday. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien estimated
on Wednesday afternoon that Biden would have to get 78 percent of
outstanding votes to win Pennsylvania. He noted (as I did) that while
there were outstanding votes in Biden counties like Philadelphia and
Montgomery, there were also many votes left in York, Butler, and
various Trump counties. Stepien thus confidently asserted, We are
declaring a victory in Pennsylvania. So did Donald Trump, and
understandably so.
Personally, I do not see how Joe Biden could have gotten that 80
percent, even as mail-in ballots have in fact been significantly
favorable to Biden throughout the country. Consider this striking
number: Biden was actually barely getting 80 percent in Philadelphia
County. Indeed, Trump still has almost 20 percent of the Philadelphia
County votes (thats surprisingly good, I thought hed be lucky to get
10 percent). He also has nearly 40 percent of Allegheny County
(Pittsburghs county) votes. Many of the other mail-in counties
remaining were Republican-Trump counties, including my own (Mercer
County, where Trump has 62 percent of the vote) and counties like
Beaver (huge fracking area, 58 percent for Trump) and even large GOP
counties like York (likewise 62 percent for Trump). (Click here for the
county breakdown.)
And yet, as weve watched the overall Pennsylvania vote flip to Biden
over the last 72 hours, its as if Donald Trump hasnt gotten even a
few hundred thousand new votes, whereas Bidens total soars by the
millions. I think Joe Biden would have been lucky to get 60 to 70
percent of all the remaining mail-in ballots. I find it almost
inconceivable that he got 80 percent.
Donald Trump is right to be suspicious, and to at least demand double-
checking, given not just Philadelphias ugly history of political
corruption, and his suspicion of the general susceptibility for mail-
in-ballot fraud, but given the implausibility of what has happened in
Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign was absolutely justified in believing
it had Pennsylvania in the bag (see my column on that). What has
somehow transpired since late Tuesday night does not seem plausible.
Consider, too: Donald Trump has 400,000 more votes in Pennsylvania in
2020 than he received in 2016, and yet he may still lose the state. The
enthusiasm for Trump here is off the charts, in contrast to no
enthusiasm for Biden. If Joe Biden has truly received that many votes
in Pennsylvania, then it must be via pure, unbridled, ferocious anti-
Trump hatred.
But alas, this isnt over, which brings me to the crucial matter of the
provisional votes. I learned last evening that there are roughly
100,000 provisional ballots still out and uncounted in Pennsylvania.
The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania defines a provisional ballot this way:
Sometimes county elections officials need more time to
determine a voters eligibility to vote. Election officials
may ask that voter to vote a provisional ballot. A provisional
ballot records your vote while the county board of elections
determines whether it can be counted.
A provisional ballot might include, for instance, a person registered
to vote at one precinct but who voted at a different precinct and thus
had had to fill out a provisional ballot. Thats just one of a variety
of examples. (Click the website for more criteria and details.)
Pennsylvania election officials have just now (this Saturday morning)
started to count these ballots. The process works like this: There are
groups/boards of three individuals who examine each ballot. Each
candidate on the ballot is allowed a representative at this hearing.
The board looks at each ballot, reads the ballot number aloud, and
examines the precinct and the reason that the person voted provisional.
At that point, a candidates representative can object whether the
ballot should or should not be counted. That ballot is set aside and is
evaluated further.
One source involved in these evaluations tells me that most of the
ballots will likely be accepted.
Most notably, these ballots should skew to Donald Trump. As I write,
Trump is winning the provisional ballots 1,394 to 439, or by a margin
of over three to one. If that margin continues, Trump could overtake
Bidens current lead in Pennsylvania. And if those ballots arent quite
enough to put Trump back in front, they could draw him close enough to
trigger an automatic recount for the entire state (a mere margin of 0.5
percent triggers an automatic recount). (The major media is not
reporting on this, with exceptions such as the AP and MSNBC).
In other words, this aint over. And its why Donald Trump is
absolutely right to not concede anything and to double-check
everything. All of the votes in Pennsylvania have not been counted.
Anyone who demands that Donald Trump suddenly concede the state of
Pennsylvania now that Joe Biden has finally barely passed him is
ignorant of the fact that there remains this crucial cache of
provisional ballots. Trump supporters endured the process of watching
the mail-in ballots being counted (i.e., Bidens strength); now Biden
supporters need to wait out the process of provisional ballots being
counted (i.e., Trumps strength).
Finally, heres an even bigger question that I cant answer beyond the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Which other crucial battleground states
have provisional ballots yet to be counted? Do they exist in Arizona,
Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, or in Michigan and Wisconsin? Is this
being considered? Is the Trump campaign aware of it?
These provisional ballots state by state will favor Trump because they
are mainly Election Day ballots, and Trump won most of these states
votes on Election Day.
In a presidential race this razor-thin, these provisional ballots could
be a game-changer not just in Pennsylvania.
The media has no authority to decide who wins the presidential
election. Thats a decision reserved to and to be certified by each
states board of elections based strictly on a final vote tally. And
that has not yet been determined.